{"id":15602,"date":"2017-05-21T18:11:57","date_gmt":"2017-05-21T22:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/?p=15602"},"modified":"2017-05-21T22:13:54","modified_gmt":"2017-05-22T02:13:54","slug":"brazil-brazil-quo-vadis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/brazil-brazil-quo-vadis\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil Oh Brazil, Quo Vadis?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dear PGM Capital blog readers<\/p>\n<p>In this weekend blog article, we want to elaborate on the latest corruption scandal that hit Brazil, when on Wednesday night, May 17, \u00a0Brazilian newspaper &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/oglobo.globo.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">O Globo<\/a>&#8221; reported that Joesley and Wesley Batista, respectively chairman and chief executive of JBS S.A (OTCBB: JBSAY), Brazil\u2019s largest meatpacker, had presented a secret recording of Brazilian President Mr. Michel Temer approving bribes to Eduardo Cunha, the disgraced former speaker of the lower house, to authorities as part of plea-bargain negotiations.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Brazil-O-globo-magnifying-glass-feature-770x400.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15622\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Brazil-O-globo-magnifying-glass-feature-770x400-300x166.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"277\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Brazil-O-globo-magnifying-glass-feature-770x400-300x166.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Brazil-O-globo-magnifying-glass-feature-770x400.jpg 685w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>QUO VADIS:<\/h3>\n<p>Quo Vadis\u00a0is a Latin phrase meaning<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Where are you going?&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>BOVESPA &amp; BRAZILIAN REAL SELL-OFF:<\/h3>\n<p>As can be seen from below chart on Thursday, May 18, \u201cBrazil\u2019s currency, the real, fell sharply against the US-Dollar,\u00a0on fears that the allegations would torpedo the government\u2019s crucial reform program to overhaul Brazil&#8217;s sinking public finances.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.21.51-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15608\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.21.51-PM-300x169.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.21.51-PM-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.21.51-PM-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.21.51-PM.png 985w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As can be seen from below chart, the Brazilian Bovespa stock index plummeting more than 10 percent on Thursday, triggering circuit breaker limits, following new bombshell allegations that the country\u2019s president Michel Temer had discussed buying a colleague\u2019s silence over corruption investigations.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.27.34-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15612\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.27.34-PM-300x168.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"335\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.27.34-PM-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.27.34-PM-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.27.34-PM.png 984w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Shares of political sensitive companies like Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) sold of sharply on Thursday as can be seen from below chart.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.30.55-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15613\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.30.55-PM-300x166.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"331\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.30.55-PM-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.30.55-PM-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.30.55-PM.png 989w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>PGM COMMENTS &amp; ANALYSIS:<\/h3>\n<p>Brazilian stocks had exploded higher in 2016 on hopes that President Temer would be able to snap Brazil out of its socialist phase, based on this the country&#8217;s stocks-index, the Bovespa, more than doubled off the lows of January 2016, as can be seen from below 2-year chart.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.40.01-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15616\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.40.01-PM-300x167.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"335\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.40.01-PM-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.40.01-PM-768x428.png 768w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Screen-Shot-2017-05-21-at-5.40.01-PM.png 986w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The dramatic drop in the Bovespa of last Thursday was enough to nearly wipe out all of the index\u2019s gain for the year and would be its biggest one day decline since October 2008 during the global financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The Temer government had already been struggling to maintain popular support, as the economy &#8211; contrary to the rosy assertions generally found in western media &#8211; continues to struggle.<\/p>\n<p>Despite his extreme unpopularity among Brazilian voters, Temer has maintained a broad majority in Congress, but analysts said public outrage over the scandal could change the political equation.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15606\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/download.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15606\" class=\"wp-image-15606\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/download-300x200.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/download-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/download-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/download-750x500.jpeg 750w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/download.jpeg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15606\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Brazilian President Mr. Michel Temer<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;If the recordings are confirmed, President Temer would have to defend his mandate on multiple fronts, citing the danger of public pressure for Temer&#8217;s resignation, lawmakers&#8217; calls for impeachment and a possible investigation by the nation&#8217;s top prosecutor.<\/p>\n<p>Brazil is currently ranked at just <a href=\"http:\/\/www.heritage.org\/index\/ranking\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">#140th<\/a> in the world in economic freedom, that&#8217;s a truly horrendous showing.<\/p>\n<p>When browsing this index we see, that Brazil ranks well behind such economic paragons as China, Russia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.<\/p>\n<p>We believe that a country that doesn&#8217;t guarantee economic rights is likely to treat foreign capital badly sooner or later, which means that you can trade these countries, but they tend to stink as long-term investments.<\/p>\n<p>Based on the above we will remain very cautious in investing in Brazil, unless we invest in Companies that are being controlled by Investment Gurus, with a track record of Good (Corporate) Governance, Transparency and that have a great market share outside Brazil.<\/p>\n<p>Yours sincerely<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/eric.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-14\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/eric.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"120\" height=\"120\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/eric.jpg 160w, https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/eric-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 120px) 100vw, 120px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Eric Panneflek<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dear PGM Capital blog readers In this weekend blog article, we want to elaborate on the latest corruption scandal that hit Brazil, when on Wednesday night, May 17, \u00a0Brazilian newspaper &#8220;O Globo&#8221; reported that Joesley and Wesley Batista, respectively chairman and chief executive of JBS S.A (OTCBB: JBSAY), Brazil\u2019s largest meatpacker, had presented a secret<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/brazil-brazil-quo-vadis\/\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15621,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pgm-capital-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15602"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15602\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15631,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15602\/revisions\/15631"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}