{"id":5958,"date":"2012-06-02T14:31:59","date_gmt":"2012-06-02T18:31:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.pgm-blog.com\/?p=5958"},"modified":"2012-06-02T14:31:59","modified_gmt":"2012-06-02T18:31:59","slug":"are-we-currently-living-in-the-era-of-the-treasury-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/are-we-currently-living-in-the-era-of-the-treasury-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we currently living in the era of the Treasury Bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-5959\" title=\"Bonds\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgm-blog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/Bonds.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"181\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5960 alignright\" title=\"bubble\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgm-blog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/bubble1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"185\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dear <strong>PGM-Capital<\/strong> Blog readers,<br \/>\nDuring\u00a0the last 3 years we\u00a0have been warning\u00a0investors for the crash of the ultimate Bubble, the Bond market.<\/p>\n<p>In the course of history we have seen a lot of bubbles forming and subsequently\u00a0bursting. The most\u00a0recent\u00a0ones were the IT-Bubble of 1997- 1999\u00a0and\u00a0the housing market bubble of 2002-2007. In all these cases bursting of the bubble\u00a0wiped\u00a0out hard saved money.<\/p>\n<p>The question most investors should ask themselves is,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Are we currently experiencing another bubble being formed? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>If yes, which one?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<strong><a title=\"Economic bubble\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Economic_bubble\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cEconomic Bubble\u201d definition:<\/a><\/strong> (Wikipedia)<br \/>\nAn\u00a0<strong>economic bubble<\/strong>\u00a0(sometimes referred to as a\u00a0<strong>speculative bubble<\/strong>, a\u00a0<strong>market bubble<\/strong>, a\u00a0<strong>price bubble<\/strong>, a\u00a0<strong>financial bubble<\/strong>, a\u00a0<strong>speculative mania<\/strong>\u00a0or a\u00a0<strong>balloon<\/strong>) is &#8220;trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with\u00a0<a title=\"Intrinsic value (finance)\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Intrinsic_value_(finance)\" target=\"_blank\">intrinsic values&#8221;<\/a>.<br \/>\nIt could also be described as a trade in products or assets with inflated values.<\/p>\n<p>Based\u00a0by fear, investors are\u00a0currently<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>fleeing into US-Treasuries\u00a0with the consequence that\u00a0the yield of the 10-year note depreciated yesterday, June 1<sup>st<\/sup>\u00a02012, with 11 basis points to a 50- year low of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>1.47%<\/strong><\/span> as can be seen from below chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgm-blog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/10-year-note-yield-50-year-chart.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-5961 aligncenter\" title=\"10 year note yield 50 year chart\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pgm-blog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/10-year-note-yield-50-year-chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"542\" height=\"242\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The yield of the 10-year Notes of financially\u00a0stable and AAA rated countries like Germany <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">(1.2%)<\/span>, Denmark <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">(1.03%)<\/span> and Switzerland <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">(0.55%)<\/span> are even lower.<\/p>\n<p>Buying treasuries at a yield of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">1.47%<\/span>,<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> 1,2%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">1.03%<\/span> and <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">0.55%<\/span> respectively is more or less equivalent with buying a security with a <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">P\/E ratio<\/span><\/strong> of respectively <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">68.02<\/span><\/strong>, <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">83, 97<\/span><\/strong> and <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">182<\/span><\/strong>, which is much higher than the P\/E ratio of the NASDAQ-100 during the high days of the IT-Bubble at the end of 1999.<\/p>\n<p>Based on our above definition of an Economic Bubble, it should be clear for everybody that based on the current yield of 10-year notes we can conclude that these figures are indicative of a Huge Bubble.<\/p>\n<p>With current meltdown of financial markets and bad economic news, we believe we are on the brink of\u00a0a\u00a0massive money printing campaign by Central-Bankers trying to\u00a0save\u00a0the world going into a depression.<\/p>\n<p>Massive money printing combined with the current bubble stage of the bond market will lead to a massive sell-off of the bond market and flee into precious-metals and stock of their producers.<\/p>\n<p>A crash of the bond market will lead also into a crash of cash and cash deposits, which will wipe out savings, entitlement programs, social security and pension funds.<\/p>\n<p>A bond-market crash will increase the yield of the 10-year-note, which will have a negative effect on the stock market and real-estate market. This is why a crash of the bond-market is called the mother of all crashes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The only bright spot during this crash will be GOLD, SILVER <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>and other precious metals.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Due to this we advise investors and the middle class to exchange their paper\u00a0or<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><a title=\"Fiat money\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Fiat_money\" target=\"_blank\">fiat-money<\/a> for Real Money<strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0Gold, Silver, and other precious metals.<\/p>\n<p>Before following any investing advice, always take your investment horizon and risk tolerance into consideration and keep in mind that the price of Commodities, Precious metals as well as the stocks of their producers can be very\u00a0volatile and that sharp corrections may happen in the short term.<\/p>\n<p>Yours Sincerely,<\/p>\n<p>Eric Panneflek<br \/>\nChairman<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dear PGM-Capital Blog readers, During\u00a0the last 3 years we\u00a0have been warning\u00a0investors for the crash of the ultimate Bubble, the Bond market. In the course of history we have seen a lot of bubbles forming and subsequently\u00a0bursting. The most\u00a0recent\u00a0ones were the IT-Bubble of 1997- 1999\u00a0and\u00a0the housing market bubble of 2002-2007. In all these cases bursting of<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/are-we-currently-living-in-the-era-of-the-treasury-bubble\/\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,10,11,12,13,14,42,15,16,1,17,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-debt-crisis","category-eric-panneflek","category-euro","category-inflation","category-market-volatility","category-pension-crisis","category-pension-fund","category-pgm-capital","category-precious-metal","category-uncategorized","category-us-dollar","category-world-economic-outlook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5958"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5958\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pgmcapital.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}